Performance

We log bets from our +EV feed and grade them once the event finishes. This page tracks how those picks actually did, both against the closing line and against the final result. Nothing here is cherry-picked: every bet that clears the filters below is recorded and settled, wins and losses alike. A single day or even a few weeks can look great or terrible by chance. +EV edges are small, so variance is large until you have a lot of bets. Over a long enough sample the math should come out ahead, but that assumes the edge estimate was real, you got the posted price, and books did not limit you. See what +EV means for the math.

Configuration

Each bet is staked as a Kelly fraction of your starting bankroll. The assumption is that bets settle through the day, so your bankroll frees up and gets bet again, which means the total wagered across a slate can add up to more than the starting bankroll. Return on bankroll is profit against your starting bankroll. Yield is profit per dollar wagered.

Last 7 slates

By date

What we record

• We only grade games that start between noon and 10pm Eastern.
• We only take a bet if we saw it in the last 60 minutes before the game starts, not hours earlier when the line was still moving around.
• For each market we keep the first price that clears the filters. If a better number shows up later, we leave it. That way the record is a real "bet it when you see it" path, not the best price of the day in hindsight.
• One bet per market. We do not stack the same side at different books (for example Team A moneyline at DraftKings and FanDuel). We do not take offsetting sides either (Team A at one book and Team B at another, or Over and Under on the same total). And we do not count the same prop at different lines (player home runs Over 0.5 and Over 1.5). The first price that clears the filters is the only one we keep.
• Edge between 3% and 10% EV. Higher is almost always a stale line, not a real edge.
• Price between -200 and +200. Heavy favorites and longshots are left out.
• Closing line value uses the fair price right before the game, separate from the price we treat as the bet.
• Ungraded means we could not confirm the result (for example a player who did not play). Those rows stay visible but do not count in profit or totals.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Results are shown as-is for informational purposes only and are not betting advice. Settlement is graded automatically and can be wrong: outcomes, odds, and totals may contain errors or omissions. Figures are hypothetical, based on recorded lines and your chosen bankroll and Kelly fraction, and do not reflect real bets, limits, or availability at any sportsbook. Always verify before placing a wager.